Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 7 prediction: NBA expert pick, odds for Sun. 5/19

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

Sunday, May 19, 8 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves came out desperate and hungry on Thursday. Perhaps they had a bit of nerves at the start, but a roaring effort with laser focus, low mistakes and high efficiency led to a game that felt over at the end of the first quarter. Wolves backers need to hope the role players continue to hit at such a high rate on the road, that the inexperience does not lead to tons of jitters and the added rest doesn't lead to a revived Jamal Murray.

The Wolves put Anthony Edwards on Murray for much of game 6, which was the tactical advantage because it forced Murray to guard Ant in transition situations, which he could feast on. If Murray is still hobbled and dealing with a relentless Wolves team that will attack him, the Wolves will put up a solid fight.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets got absolutely demolished in Minnesota in Game 6. After a 9-2 open to the game, the Nuggets slipped very early and never regained control. They would go on to lose by 45 points and score a season low 70 points. Despite the lopsided score, I think the Nuggets will quickly move on, toss out the game tape and chalk some of this up to shot variance and energy. The Nuggets' starters were pulled with 8:33 left in the fourth quarter, and at that time the Wolves and Nuggets had the same amount of 3-point attempts, but 5 different makes.

That's a +15 edge just behind the line. I expect the Nuggets' home court to be more comforting for the role players and a large advantage in a game 7, despite home court not mattering in this series in games 1-4. The Nuggets also expended so much energy to dig out of a 0-2 hole to come back to being up 3-2, it is not surprising they stepped off the wheel and were tired. Now with 3 days until game 7, this is a strong Nuggets bounce back spot.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Betting Pick & Prediction

I could throw out some game 7 historical stats, but the data respective to these active players is such a low sample size that I don't think it provides any insight or edge. For example, Mike Conley has the most game 7 experience on the Wolves and he is 0-4. That matters very little to me.

What I prefer to note is the books wiping out the 45-point loss very quickly. The Nuggets opened as a 4.5-point favorite and are now out to a universal consensus on the -5. There is a volume of tickets on Wolves, but a strong handle of money on the Nuggets. This is called reverse line movement, when the line moves inverse to the volume of bets. The total is also trickling down. I believe over backers are going to wait until the final moment to play it, because game 7 unders are such a steam side, so I do not love buying into the dip. If you want the Wolves or the under then wait. If you want the Nuggets or the over, bet it now.

Pick: Nuggets -4.5 | Under 199, 1u each